2009年12月16日星期三

Nordea - Economic setback ahead

The angle for the all-around abridgement has worsened over the accomplished months. The all-embracing acclaim crisis seems far from over, the apartment bazaar is beneath austere burden in abounding countries and all-around banal markets accept accomplished the a lot of affecting atrophy back the IT balloon access in 2000. Against this background, Nordea's economists clearly lower their forecasts of advancing years' bread-and-butter advance in the advertisement Economic Outlook.

- The US abridgement has apparently already slid into a recession and the after-effects will advance to the economies in the blow of the world, including the Nordic countries, says Global Chief Economist in Nordea, Helge J. Pedersen.

The capital acumen for the Danish bread-and-butter arrest is still the abatement in the apartment bazaar that has abnormally afflicted clandestine burning advance and residential investment. The Danish abridgement is aswell adverse challenges acquired by the all-embracing acclaim crisis. Higher money bazaar ante accept fabricated banking institutions advertise amount hikes for assertive accommodation products. The college lending ante will eventually aggravate the trend appear lower advance in investment and clandestine consumption. But a lot of importantly, the angle for softer all-around advance and the anemic US dollar and British batter point to a anemic development in Danish exports in the advancing years.

The Swedish abridgement started to apathetic down in 2007 and is accepted to apathetic added this year and in 2009, area advance will be able-bodied below the abeyant level. Exports are able-bodied diversified, abating some of the abrogating accoutrement of the US slowdown. Investment has added sharply, but will now bedew as an aftereffect of chastened demand. Private burning is apparent slowing admitting a able acceleration in disposable income, additional by budgetary action measures in 2009 account 20bn Swedish kronor. Employment will abatement and unemployment aces up next year as an aftereffect of a weaker growth. Inflation has remained high, but is accepted to bead as the aftereffect of college prices of activity and aliment drops out of the basis during H2 2008. This paves the way for the Riksbank to alpha acid the repo amount during the autumn extensive 3 per cent in 2009.

Finnish bread-and-butter advance slowed clearly as aboriginal as in H2 2007. According to Nordea's beforehand estimates, the abatement in the apple abridgement would briefly apathetic down advance in Finland, which would mainly affluence the bottlenecks acquired by able-bodied growth. However, the declivity in consign markets will accordingly be reflected in the angle for the Finnish economy. Nordea expects bread-and-butter advance to be about 2 per cent on boilerplate in 2008 and 2009. So, the abatement still looks set to be almost mild. Yet, risks accept absolutely added that the bread-and-butter abatement in 2008-09 will be added than just a acceptable breather.

In Norway the amount backpack will advice barrier advance in calm appeal over the next few years. A weaker all-around advance angle will aswell abbreviate advance traveling forward, although top oil prices absolute the aftereffect on the Norwegian economy. Slow advance agency that the action amount can break at a abiding akin of 5.5 per cent admitting added aggrandizement this year. The banking agitation will advance to a tighter budgetary action and Norges Bank will seek to stabilise inflation. The agilely top oil prices and college absorption ante in Norway compared to its trading ally will defended a able bill over the next years although accident appetence a allotment of investors is currently declining, arch to a weaker Norwegian krone.

View account with Helge J. Pedersen on Nordic bread-and-butter trends at www.nordea.com/eo/uk - area the address is aswell available.

For added information:
Helge J. Pedersen, Global Chief Economist, +45 33 33 31 26

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