Nordea - direct/ Nordea (SE) - Nordea economists: At the axis point

World abridgement is at the axis point. If account about the all-around bread-and-butter bearings in 2007 was like account an agitative book it looks like the 2008-story can be compared to a thriller. That is the appearance bidding by Nordea´s economists in their advertisement "Economic Outlook, January 2008".

- Despite the arch axial banks´ efforts to cross through the sub-prime crisis, the US abridgement looks added fragile; we accept there is a 40 per cent accident of the US abridgement entering a absolute bread-and-butter recession. At the aforementioned time, markets in Europe and Japan appearance growing signs of an bread-and-butter slowdown, says Helge J. Pedersen, Head of Economic Research at Nordea.

The Nordic economies accept for absolutely some time accomplished the fastest advance ante in the Western world, but even the Nordic countries assume to accept difficulties in alienated the aphotic clouds looming on the horizon.

- The apple abridgement now depends on the adeptness of the fast-growing Asian and added Emerging Markets´ to accumulate up the pace. We agnosticism that these countries are accessible to act as a advance engine for the blow of the world, says Helge J. Pedersen.

The Danish abridgement is on the one duke adverse a abiding abatement in unemployment. Accelerating pay rises and a assiduous abatement in the accepted anniversary surplus announce that the Danish abridgement is active at added than abounding capacity.
- On the added hand, we see bright signs of a arrest in clandestine burning as a aftereffect of college absorption ante and an ambiguous apartment market. Still, we apprehend a likelihood of a bendable landing for the Danish abridgement over the next few years, but the accident of an overheated abridgement could be belted by a beneath expansionary bread-and-butter action from the Danish government, says Helge J. Pedersen.

With the barring of a accessory abatement on the apartment bazaar it is harder to atom any weaknesses in the Norwegian economy. Wages are accretion agilely and aggrandizement is branch higher. In the oil-related businesses we will see connected able growth, and as continued as oil prices abide high, the Norwegian abridgement will beacon almost bright of the all-embracing turmoil.
- The aggressive absorption ante will affect domiciliary accumulation and calm appeal will dampen. Coupled with a anemic all-embracing outlook, this will activate alone two rises in absorption ante in 2008 admitting bright tendencies of burden and ascent inflation, says Helge J. Pedersen, abacus that the added absorption ante and almost able advance will accumulate the NOK strong.

Turning to Sweden, the abridgement slowed down added than accepted in 2007 mainly as a aftereffect of lower consign growth. Nordea expects advance to bedew added this year, but the abridgement will still aggrandize at or about the abeyant advance rate, with calm appeal as the above active force. Employment best up acutely in 2007 and is acceptable to abide growing this year, but at a slower pace.
- A bound labour bazaar accumulated with ample allowance increases and low abundance advance will advance to college amount pressures. Inflation will be added additional by acutely ascent activity and aliment prices and looks set to acutely beat the Riksbank´s 2 per cent ambition in 2008.
However, aggrandizement is apparent broadly in band with the ambition at year-end. The Riksbank is accordingly acceptable to accumulate the repo amount banausic at 4 per cent throughout 2008.

The Finnish abridgement broadcast agilely endure year, but the drive slowed down clearly already in the additional bisected of 2007. Nordea expects this year´s GDP advance to be hardly lower than estimated beforehand mainly due to weaker consign demand.
- However, we apprehend consign appeal to aces up hardly in 2009 and appropriately the bendable application in the abridgement will be abstinent as able-bodied as almost short-lived. There is a accident of an even added astringent abatement due to the risks accompanying to the all-around economy. Still, the angle for burning appeal in accurate is so solid that even above difficulties in consign markets are acceptable to ache the Finnish abridgement beneath than at the alpha of this decade, says Helge J. Pedersen.

View account with Helge J. Pedersen on Nordic bread-and-butter trends at www.nordea.com/eo/uk - area the address is aswell available.

For added information:
Helge J. Pedersen, Head of Economic Research, +45 33 33 31 26
Atte Palomäki, Group Chief Press Officer, +358 9 165 42325

Press absolution (PDF)
hugin.info/1151/R/1183613/236534.pdf