2009年12月16日星期三

Global Property Guide - World acreage bazaar accelerate worsens

As banking markets tumble, the world’s apartment markets accept connected to accelerate during the year to end-Q2 2008. Inflation-adjusted abode prices fell in 21 out of the 33 countries for which there is abreast appear data.

The Baltics, the US, the UK and Ireland led the all-around abatement during the year to end-Q2 2008, the latest date for which absolute all-around statistics are available.

The better abode amount declines took abode in Latvia, ahead a baton of the all-around abode amount boom. House prices in Riga accept collapsed by 21.23% in nominal agreement during the year to end-Q2 2008, and 33.08% in absolute terms. Prices in Estonia’s Tallinn fell during the year by 11.02% in nominal terms, and 14.06% in absolute terms.

Quarterly abstracts suggests that things are accepting worse, with declines in inflation-adjusted abode prices over the division in all except 9 of the 33 countries tracked. Latvia’s Riga saw the better annual abatement during Q2 of 2008, with boilerplate abode prices falling 5.20% in nominal terms, and 8.16% in absolute terms.

While annual abstracts are accountable to melancholia variations and are appropriately beneath reliable, the accelerate suggests that the bearings is worsening.

Dramatic downturns

Since endure year, there has been a affecting turn-around in the world’s apartment markets. Only 5 countries out of 33, at this date endure year, had apparent y-o-y declines in abode prices in absolute terms. This year’s absolute is 21.

Even in countries which accept connected to almanac abode prices rises over the accomplished year such as China (Shanghai was up 36.32% y-o-y in nominal agreement at the end of Q2 2008, 27.28% in inflation-adjusted terms), transaction volumes accept collapsed sharply, suggesting that buyers are now nervous.

While acreage markets in some regions such as the Middle East allegedly abide in boom, it is harder to affirm this by reliable data. With the barring of Israel, none of Middle East’s acreage registries, statistical institutes or axial banks broadcast acceptable abstracts on apartment markets.

A final thought: It seems absorbing that Slovakia’s abode prices are still accelerating, accepting risen 32.20% this year (a acceleration of 25.57% in inflation-adjusted terms), as adjoin a acceleration of 20.47% y-o-y to end-Q2 2007 (a acceleration of 17.56% in inflation-adjusted terms).

Clearly, the bang in Eastern Europe is not absolutely finished. There accept aswell been able amount increases in Monaco, Montenegro and Albania, although no official abode amount statistics are available.

Rescue efforts
The efforts to accomplishment the world’s apartment markets are acceptable added global.

In the US, the authorities are gluttonous a US$700 billion “mother of all bailouts” amalgamation to acquirement about all of the country’s bad mortgage debt in an accomplishment to unfreeze the nation’s acclaim markets. In the year to end-Q2 2008, abode prices in above US cities fell 15.4% (18.9% in absolute terms) from a year earlier, according to the Case-Shiller abode amount index. It was the sixth after division that the abode amount basis alone year-on-year.

In the UK, the brand assignment absolution has been aloft to £175,000 from £125,000 for houses purchased from September 2008 to September 2009. The government aswell apparent a £1 billion amalgamation to abetment aboriginal time home buyers and households disturbing with their mortgage payments. In Sept. 2007 Northern Rock, one of UK’s better lenders was bailed by the Bank of England. In the year to end-Q2 2008, abode prices in the UK fell 6.33% (9.77% in absolute terms) from a year earlier, according to Nationwide.

In Spain, the government appear a €3bn accomplishment package. Certain absolute acreage investment companies were accustomed tax break to hire out unsold new homes for a anchored period. In the year to end-Q2 2008, abode prices in Spain rose 2.00% (a abatement of 2.49% in absolute terms) from a year earlier, according to official statistics (which are broadly believed to understate the problem).

In Ireland, the 2009 account will cover a "stimulus package" accouterment abetment to first-time homebuyers. During the year to end-Q2 2008, abode prices in Ireland fell 9.65% (13.92% in absolute terms), according to official statistics.

In South Korea, the government is set for tax break and abatement restrictions on construction. In the year to end-Q2 2008, abode prices in South Korea rose 4.94% (a abatement of 0.88% in absolute terms), according to official statistics.

Thailand and Indonesia are answer the alleviation of adopted buying banned to lift their apartment markets. During the year to end-Q2 2008, abode prices in Indonesia rose 5.60% (a abatement of 4.18% in absolute terms), according to official statistics.

###
For added data -- www.globalpropertyguide.com/investment-analysis/World-pro...

The Global Property Guide is an on-line acreage analysis house.

Terms of Use:
On-line newspapers, magazines, sites, etc adulatory to use actual from this columnist absolution MUST accommodate a clickable hotlink to www.globalpropertyguide.com Sites and newspapers begin not to be accouterment a hotlink to us will be removed from our columnist list.

Requests for Comments:
Requests for comments are best fabricated by blast to +(63) 917 321 7073. UK-based callers should blast afore lunchtime. Our bounded time is Hong Kong time, i.e., accepted time + 8.00

Economics Team:
Prince Christian Cruz, Senior Economist
Phone: (+632) 750 0560
Cell: (+63) 917 735 2228
Email: prince@globalpropertyguide.com

Publisher and Strategist:
Matthew Montagu-Pollock
Phone: (+632) 867 4220
Cell: (+63) 917 321 7073
Email: editor@globalpropertyguide.com

Address:
Global Property Guide
www.globalpropertyguide.com
5F Electra House Building
115-117 Esteban Street
Legaspi Village, Makati City
Philippines 1229
info@globalpropertyguide.com

没有评论:

发表评论